Sunday, 25 September 2011

So you wish to make your way out of a semi final? - Points (continued...)

If you read the last post closely, you'll note that the top nine places, except one are not lucky places to land in a semi final. The exception of these is slot 4 quite surprisingly is the only place within the top 10. I should reveal that 6th missed out on 10th place on a count back.

So, 10th through to 19th:

A semi final win came in semi final 1 of 2010 (Tom Dice - Belgium) for semi final slot number 10 as well as another six songs that progressed to the final. The remaining songs came 12, 16th twice and 21st twice. The average for 10th is 81.75 - 5th of the 19 slots and a safe place to expect a final space.

Of all the places in the remaining draw, eleventh is the anomaly. With an average score of 59.00 and this places it 15th of the 19 spots in the draw. While no song has come last in a semi final, only three songs have gone through. Mainly, 16-17th place cane be expected.

2009 seemed to be a good year to be drawn twelfth; semi final one provided second place in the semi final and semi final two was the winner (Azerbaijan and Iceland respectively). 2010 was a good year too, both songs making the semi final. Sadly, this is all the good fortune for 12th; not other songs have made a final. The average points are 68.25 coming into 10th place, but only just.

These spots in the draw are prime real estate with only eight songs across these three placings of 12 semi finals that did not make the Eurovision Song contest final. I'm getting ahead of myself; lets go one by one.

Thirteenth is an unlucky number for some. Thirteenth has not seen a last place or winners, but they do have 8 of 12 successful semi finalist. The songs that have were unsuccessful were 2007, semi 2 of 2009 and 2010, and the first semi of 2011. The average points are 103.83; being the 3rd most successful place in the draw.

Fifteenth has a similar story to the thirteenth place with two exceptions - there was a semi final winner in 2007 (Serbia) and also a last place in the 2008 semi 2 (Hungary). Other than this again 8 of 12 success stories and 4 non starters (2008 and 2010 both semi finalists). The average score is 88.75; the fourth most successful place in the draw.

Fourteenth may seem humble and in no mans land in the draw. Let me advise you that it is a Eurovision semi final goldmine. The one and only entry that has not made the Eurovision final is that of 2007 (Poland). There was a winner in 2005 (Romania) and six others in the top 5 (2004, 2008 - semi 1 and 2, 2010 semi 1, both semis of 2011). The score average score is 108 - the top place in the 19 spaces.

These two have a similar story to tell.

Sixteenth had a winner back in 2006 (Finland) plus another 5 successful semi finalists. Sadly, this is also the place where in 2007, the Czech Republic came 28th of 28 songs with 1 point. Otherwise, 2 x 14th, 2x 18th and a 21st. The average points score is 70.00, the 9th most successful slot of the draw.

Seventeenth is lucky for the final, but in the semi finals it is a different story. Seven of twelve semi finalist have progressed to the final, including the Turkish entry of 2010 which won the 2nd semi final. Seventeenth doesn't have a last place recipient, but the remaining five songs came 11th (07), 12th(04), 15th (08-2), 17th (11-2) and 20th (07). The average for 17th is 75.58; the 8th most successfully place in the draw.

There have been only 10 semi final places at 18th (2010 had 17 entries per semi final) and from the ten not one entry won their semi final or came last. What we do have is five entries that finished either 2nd or third in their semi final (Semi 1 of 2008, all semis for 2009 and 2011), plus a fifth and 2x 9th to bring the success rate to 8 of 10 entries making the final. The last two places were 23rd in 2005 and 11th for semi final 2 in 2008. The average score for 18th is 105.50, the second most successful place in the draw.

In most places last in the draw, there are 9 occurrences of 19th in the draw.   Nineteen is the only spot of draw to have two winners; both coincidently for Greece - 08 and 11. The remainder are a second and two eighths, 1 of 13th, 17th, 18th and 19th. The average score is 81.33 and the sixth most successful place in the draw.

So you ask, how many points have been scored for each place in the draw. Here it is:
  1. 768
  2. 546
  3. 432
  4. 919
  5. 558
  6. 819
  7. 791
  8. 674
  9. 749
  10. 981
  11. 708
  12. 819
  13. 1246
  14. 1296
  15. 1065
  16. 840
  17. 907
  18. 1055
  19. 732

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