Tuesday, 20 March 2012

2012 DRAW!!!

Woo hoo. We know when everyone is singing.

This is what I think of the draw:

Semi 1
01. Montenegro [Last three entries have all been semi 1, slot 1 - no final from here]
02. Iceland [People like Iceland; bad draw though. If they are singing in English; the battle may be lost]
03. Greece [No idea how long since the Greek have sung this early - worst place in the semi draw]
04. Latvia [Latvia has landed early draws often - we will see how lucky this one will be]
05. Albania [Albania has landed 5th a few times with some success - expect it will continue]
06. Romania [Romania has sung 6th before, I'd dont believe it was lucky] 
07. Switzerland [Switzerland has not had luck from 7th; wouldn't have made the final even if they sang last]

08. Belgium [No mans land for Belgium in the middle of the draw]
09. Finland [Can't recall the Finns ever singing 9th]
10. Israel [Lively number - should do okay from 10]
11. San Marino [Wouldn't have made the final anyway - may get a vote from the Swiss and Italy]
12. Cyprus [Not great to be before Denmark; but are following San Marino ...]
13. Denmark [Good draw for a decent song]
14. Russia [Eccentric song - decent draw]
15. Hungary [Should make the final and possibly resolve some disappointment from last year]
16. Austria [Good chance of qualifying now - earlier draw could have been a disaster]
17. Moldova [17 is always a good place to be]
18. Ireland [They were lucky to get the wild card - would have qualified anyway]

Semi 2
01. Serbia [Good song to open with - will make the final]

02. FYROM [Chances have desolved - all over red rover; don't even pass go]

03. The Netherlands [Oh dear - last year the Dutch sang in exactly the same spot in the same draw and came last. Much better song this year - should do better]

04. Malta [Dreaded spot for the Maltese - may have some luck with a good performance]

05. Belarus [Meh draw - lively song should do okay]

06. Portugal [They would have hoped for better - danger off missing the final from 6]

07. Ukraine [They chose 7th. There is no danger of the Ukraine missing the final]

08. Bulgaria [Following Ukraine, poor Bulgaria will be ignored.]
09. Slovenia [I believe the Slovenes have sung at nine before - knife edge of qualifying]

10. Croatia [Last of the Balkans - has sung 10th before with moderate success too]
11. Sweden [Could have sung anywhere and passed through]
12. Georgia [Following the hot favorite could be trouble. Could miss out.]
13. Turkey [Moderate draw - depends on the performance]
14. Estonia [Should be okay from 14th]
15. Slovakia [The first entry from Slovakia in 94 was at 15th - it got no points; i believe they were followed by Norway that year too]
16. Norway [Not bad for Norway - should do well.]

17. Bosnia-Herzegovina [Best draw of the Balkan countries - should do very well]

18. Lithuania [Normally, singing last is a good thing, but this is Lithuania. Remember 2002?]


01. United Kingdom [The UK have won from first before]

09. France [Bad, mainly because Italy comes next]

10. Italy [Okay, it's about the performance]

13. Azerbaijan [Not a hope from 13]

19. Spain [They had the wild card last year too, and chose the place of the previous winner - that doesn't work. 19 is a super luck place in the draw anyway. ]

20. Germany [Good draw being late in the game]